NVIDIA

In ToTheMoon episodes NVIDIA is the measure of how much money the market attaches to compute. The hosts keep returning to its market value as a gauge of expectations and each time ask what backs them: how many people actually get value from models, who pays for the chips, and whether the company might repeat Cisco's fate.

In summer 2024 the channel predicted NVIDIA would become the world's most valuable company, and within weeks it did; the reading was that NVIDIA sells not an interface but the foundation of the whole race, while Microsoft, Amazon and Google look for ways to reduce their dependence (episode 008). By the logic of a Sequoia article, software companies on top of NVIDIA's roughly 150 billion in revenue should be earning 600, whereas OpenAI made about three (episode 012). In January 2025 came the line “The dominance of NVIDIA seemed totally unshakeable” (episode 040).

The near half-trillion drop after DeepSeek was analysed as a blow not to hardware but to the belief that only a few companies can build strong AI: when compute gets cheaper, more people use it (episode 043). The US decision to sell NVIDIA to the world was explained by the risk that buyers would otherwise turn to Huawei (episode 058), and by late 2025 the threat was located in Google, which trains models on its own hardware (episode 087). In 2026 NVIDIA was discussed as a gateway into AI with software of its own (episode 099), and as a company that could become a corporation of a different class — even as Jensen Huang's claim that AGI had been achieved was called hype (episode 103).