Who Owns the AI World Now? The Top News Straight from Silicon Valley
Who will own the work, the money and the infrastructure of the AI world — whoever has the smarter model, or whoever owns the user, the search box, the cloud and the plan that user pays for?
The hosts record that this week the market stopped arguing about models and started talking about ownership: ChatGPT has a billion weekly users, Gemini seven hundred million, OpenAI is pulling ChatGPT, Codex and the API into a single infrastructure, and Google is announcing Spark, making its model the main search model and officially changing its approach to SEO. The year's three IPOs — OpenAI, SpaceX AI and Anthropic — are each valued above a trillion, and Alexander Volchek ties that to the fact that only the US and China have the infrastructure today. Ilnar Shafigullin reads Andrej Karpathy's move to Anthropic as a bet on self-improvement and on image, while Tatiana Tsvetkova reports that in China those who can afford American models use exactly those. The pricing argument ends on two opposite facts: the host expects ChatGPT Pro above $1,000, while the market has so far shifted to $100 — at Anthropic, at OpenAI and in Google AI Ultra from $99.99.
What to watch for
Key takeaways
Alexander Volchek asked Codex to return answers as JSON, got a report in HTML and within five days moved all the reporting he used to do in PDF and Excel onto it. The model takes every request into account, and instead of fifty pages of unmanageable PDF you get an interactive document; Codex through the most expensive models costs less than fifteen systems and the people around them. Ilnar Shafigullin explains why: HTML is a deterministic language with a huge number of libraries, and to the model it is code, not pictures.
By all accounts OpenAI plans to merge ChatGPT, Codex and the API; Codex's biggest update came out on May 20 — faster interfaces and fixes for the bugs that left the system spinning and burning tokens. If the single infrastructure works, the host thinks OpenAI will beat the plans of Elon Musk, who first spoke of a trillion, then a trillion and a half, and has now filed for a June IPO at a valuation above two trillion. As Ilnar Shafigullin reads it, the merged SpaceX AI gets the lion's share of next year's revenue from rockets and satellites, but over several years AI accounts for a far larger share of the market.
Codex transcribes conversations through the API with the rules in the prompt, runs online diarization for about $0.30, and a system trained on the hosts' voices splits the dialogue by speaker; a review pass through 5.5 Pro costs about $5, plain 5.5 pennies. The output is HTML with audio snippets wherever voices overlap. External services, the host says, work clumsily and rely on Whisper, which is worse than 4o Transcribe and 4o Diarize; Ilnar Shafigullin adds that three separate tracks give one-hundred-percent diarization with no voice training at all.
This week the market is asking not which model is better but who owns the agent interface — search, the browser, the workplace, shopping; ChatGPT has a billion weekly users, Google Gemini seven hundred million. On May 19 Google announced Google Spark, a personal AI executor inside its ecosystem, said its key model is becoming the main search model, and is officially changing its approach to SEO: from "AI answers" to "AI does". The host regards the agent as an old intermediate stage, and whether browser agents are needed at all remains an open question.
To set up Google Cloud, in the host's words, you have to sell your kidneys and hire ten DevOps engineers, and connecting to the Google Ads and Meta APIs eats a cosmic amount of time on paperwork; Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini save the day by naming the exact menu items. His rule in Codex is that he goes nowhere himself — not into Git, not into storage, not into databases — the system does it all. Ilnar Shafigullin agrees that AWS and Google Cloud certificates raise your market weight for a reason, and expects voice agents for the fine-grained settings.
Dozens of medical platforms do not sync, so the host plans to open Codex, list the ten systems his test results arrive in, save everything to a folder and build HTML reports in a single window. Ilnar Shafigullin puts it this way: email will be not for the person but for the AI plugged into it. Alexander Volchek calls this not an agent but full AI-native software: a $100 Polar sensor demands another $1,000 for software, while in your own system it connects directly; likewise Google has released a band at around $100 in a collaboration with Curry — a blow to Whoop.
Andrej Karpathy has joined Anthropic's research team and will work on self-improvement — improving the model by means of the model itself. Ilnar Shafigullin sees it as an image story too: Karpathy is a media-savvy scientist with a spotless reputation, but he has not worked closely in R&D for a long time — EdTech, videos on transformers and courses — so not a frontier scientist. The route OpenAI — Tesla — Anthropic leads to a company that may overtake OpenAI in capitalization; Alexander Volchek points out that as an OpenAI co-founder Karpathy is a billionaire.
Trump is pushing a bill under which American models would give politicians access ninety days before release — the host doubts it will pass and sees great damage in it; senators are preparing a bipartisan bill for an office and a fund of about half a billion dollars so that allies buy American AI chips instead of Chinese ones. Sberbank, under sanctions, is fighting for Chinese Huawei Ascend 950 chips in competition with Tencent and Alibaba. All of it confirms Alexander Volchek's thesis: only the US and China have the infrastructure, and the US money is visible in three IPOs above a trillion, while OpenAI keeps blocking sanctioned countries ever more tightly. Tatiana Tsvetkova adds that in China everyone who can afford American models uses exactly those.
The most widely deployed mass player in AI is Google: if the search engine becomes AI, then it is AI whichever way you look at it. The future Google.com, in the host's view, is a line or a terminal that does everything, and Google has an advantage over ChatGPT here, although he himself uses Google's services but not Gemini. Search engines will go the way of Aport and Rambler — just as a mail client is unnecessary when a letter is sent from another interface; the only question is whether Google's chief can hold the leading position.
An hour of Alexander Volchek's requests on the $200 Pro plan costs more than the same hour through the API — thousands of dollars a day — so he is waiting for a plan that fewer than one percent will use and is ready to pay $5,000 a month. Ilnar Shafigullin describes Anthropic's model: the subscription carries a token quota, everything above it is paid from the account via the API, and OpenAI will probably come to the same if it runs into compute limits. The context is that Greg Brockman is officially taking control of ChatGPT, Codex and the API for a Super App, after which monetization and pricing should change.
The token policy Jensen Huang talks about is right for the world, but to have one or two billion regular users you need a plan — people pay as they do for Netflix and for utilities, and whether AI becomes a utility with time-of-day pricing like electricity is, the host says, one of the main topics. The market, meanwhile, has moved down: Grok 3 Heavy cost $300, but Anthropic rolled out a $100 plan, OpenAI cut its subscription from $200 to $100, and Google's site already shows a "new plan", Google AI Ultra from $99.99 — with 20x Gemini limits, Google Spark, NotebookLM, Antigravity and other perks that Alexander Volchek calls mostly junk.
AWS explains how to restrict access in browsers, but the host doubts any ordinary person understands what they are doing when handing out JSON files, API keys, refresh and access tokens and permissions to an agent — not even Ilya Sutskever or Greg Brockman understand it, he says, and Sam Altman certainly does not. To the question of how CRM tokens could have leaked into Codex he answers that programmers leaked all the tokens long ago while the security team thinks it controls everything. Ilnar Shafigullin adds that the amount of source code uploaded into models over the past year is staggering, and leaks happen even at Anthropic and OpenAI.
What this episode is about
The ToTheMoon Sunday podcast with Alexander Volchek, Ilnar Shafigullin and Tatiana Tsvetkova. The occasion is a week in which, as the host puts it, artificial intelligence stopped living in a chat window: OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, Google is rebuilding search, Meta is moving thousands of employees into AI, China is showing its own chips, and the main question is not which model is smarter but who will own the work, the money and the infrastructure of the AI world.
The first block is the discovery of the week. Instead of JSON, Codex gave Alexander Volchek a report in HTML, and within five days he moved all his reporting to HTML: models work with it far better than with PDF, and instead of fifty pages you get an interactive document. Ilnar Shafigullin explains that to a model HTML is deterministic code, not pictures. From there the conversation turns to the host's pipeline — transcription through the API, online diarization for $0.30, a review pass through 5.5 Pro for $5 and HTML with audio snippets wherever voices overlap — and to the fact that three separate tracks give one-hundred-percent diarization with no voice training.
The second block is money. By all accounts OpenAI is merging ChatGPT, Codex and the API, and Codex's biggest update came out on May 20. Elon Musk has filed for a June IPO at a valuation, the host says, above two trillion, and OpenAI will go public at no less; Ilnar adds that the merged SpaceX AI earns next year's revenue from rockets and satellites, but in market share AI accounts for far more over time.
The third block is Google. ChatGPT has a billion weekly users, Gemini seven hundred million; on May 19 Google announced Google Spark, is making its key model the main search model and is officially changing its approach to SEO — from "AI answers" to "AI does". At the same time the host describes Google Cloud as an anti-system built to lock you in — settings, authorizations, "a trillion accounts" — and his rule in Codex of never going anywhere himself. Ilnar agrees that AWS and Google Cloud certificates are valued for a reason and expects voice agents for settings.
Next: is email needed at all. Dozens of medical platforms do not sync, Google has released a band at around $100 in collaboration with Curry as a blow to Whoop, and the host plans to gather all his test results in Codex and build HTML reports. Ilnar puts it this way: email will be for the AI, not for the person; Alexander calls this not an agent but AI-native software. Alongside come storage and subscriptions: $50 a month for space in Google, "create a bucket" in AWS instead of a "migrate from Google Drive" button, 800 keys and a double YouTube Premium subscription.
People and politics. Andrej Karpathy has joined Anthropic's research team to work on self-improvement — Ilnar sees an image story in it too, since Karpathy has long been away from frontier R&D. Trump is pushing a bill on ninety days of access to models before release, senators are preparing a fund of about half a billion dollars so that allies buy American chips, and Sberbank is fighting for the Huawei Ascend 950. The infrastructure, the host repeats, exists only in the US and China; OpenAI is blocking sanctioned countries ever more tightly, and Tatiana Tsvetkova reports that in China those who can afford American models use exactly those.
The finale is who owns AI and what it costs. Google is the most widely deployed mass player, the future Google.com is a terminal that does everything, and search as a concept will not exist. Alexander expects ChatGPT Pro above $1,000 and is ready to pay $5,000; Ilnar describes Anthropic's token quota, which OpenAI will probably adopt too; Greg Brockman is taking over OpenAI's products for a Super App; the token is the world's currency, but a billion users need a utility-style plan. The market has so far gone to $100 — at Anthropic, OpenAI and Google AI Ultra from $99.99. The episode closes on leaks: programmers gave the tokens away long ago, while security thinks it controls everything.
The episode's value is that it turns the argument about models into an argument about ownership: the user, the interface, the cloud, the plan. The hosts show both sides honestly — delight in Codex and HTML next to irritation at Google Cloud and subscriptions, the expectation of a $1,000 plan next to a market heading to $100. And the frame in which all of this happens is named plainly: the infrastructure and the money today are only in the US and China, and three IPOs above a trillion will decide who exactly owns the AI world.
What the episode records above all is a shift in the question: not which model is smarter, but who owns the user, the interface, the cloud and the plan. Every thread of the week — HTML instead of PDF, OpenAI's single infrastructure, Google Spark and the new search, Google Cloud as a trap, plans from $100 to $1,000 — converges on one point: the winner is whoever becomes a utility, not whoever has the best chat. And the hosts name the price plainly — blocking, token leaks and three IPOs that will lock the infrastructure in with the US and China.
Episode transcript
The episode is in Russian; below is an English reading guide to the transcript (the full EN transcript is a machine translation). Voice matching applied to 151 segments: 0 identified, 0 mixed, 151 probable, and 0 unresolved.
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