Access to strong AI will become expensive and limited
31 episodes in 12 months · 35 total · first in March 2025
Access to the strongest models is first given and then restricted — by price, by limits, by identity checks and even by citizenship. Behind this is physics: there is simply not enough electricity and computing power for a billion users, and a cheap model does not give the same quality.
So the $20–200 “free lunch” will end: truly strong AI will cost as much as a good employee. Put spending on models into the budget as a separate line — next to payroll.
Happening now. Already coming true: in No. 122 (June 2026) Anthropic switched off Fable 5 for everyone, and in No. 168 (September 2026) OpenAI closed sales of the $200 Pro plan — and whether it will bring it back is unknown.
Where to start
Do not take today's $20–200 for strong AI as the price forever.
Put spending on strong models into the budget as a separate line, next to payroll.
Meanwhile base models and APIs are getting cheaper: it is access to the very strongest ones that is getting more expensive and being closed off.
“But for now we won't see this appear, we only see the cost of models via API getting cheaper, models improving, performance improving.”
When I said it
Quotes
“And Fable's availability for tokens—that's availability only for people with very big money. That's tens of thousands of dollars.”
“All the cool systems today, they're available to certain corporations, certain structures, certain people, clans; they're not available to the world.”
“Ordinary citizens don't have access to the Mythos systems. There's a bit of access to Fable, and beyond that the bulk of people use everything else. And on top of that, the bulk of people, using free systems or, like, a cheap subscription, don't even come close to having access to serious models.”
“And that’s why, every now and then, when I say that ChatGPT may cost like a mortgage, everyone keeps saying: “What mortgage? So how is that possible, right?””